Why producer prices move gold
The chain: hot PPI implies pipeline pressure on future CPI, nudging rate expectations hawkish, lifting yields and the dollar, weighing on gold, with the cool print running the chain in reverse. The move sizes with the surprise, not the level, and with how much the current regime cares about inflation versus growth, the same regime-filter logic from the CPI playbook.
The sequencing quirk
PPI's market weight depends on its calendar position: printing before CPI that month, it carries genuine preview value and trades accordingly; printing after, it mostly confirms or garnishes what CPI already settled, and reactions fade faster. Check the sequence before assigning the day its risk tier, the calendar shows both dates.
The session plan
Standard event discipline scaled to tier: positions squared or reduced into the release, no fresh entries in the final pre-print minutes, first reaction treated as untradeable spread-chaos, and the real work in the second wave, whether the initial move holds its structure or round-trips, per the news framework. On PPI-before-CPI weeks, note what the market rewarded; CPI day usually rhymes with it.
FAQ
Is PPI as important as CPI for gold?
No; it is the preview, not the verdict. Its weight rises when it prints before CPI in the month and in regimes obsessed with inflation.
What time does PPI land?
With the main morning US data block; the calendar lists the exact release time converted to your timezone.
Why did gold ignore a big PPI surprise?
Usually because CPI had already printed that month, or the regime's current fear lies elsewhere, growth, not inflation.
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