Why raids concentrate here
Q1 builds a visible range while liquidity is thin, advertising exactly where resting orders sit. Q2 brings the first real participation. A large buyer fills best by first probing where sellers cluster, below the range, and vice versa. The window between London's arrival and New York's data is when this order-collection is cheapest to run.
The anatomy of a raid
The sequence: push through the extreme, pause as resting orders fill, then the tell, either acceptance, closes holding beyond with follow-through, meaning real breakout, or rejection, a wick back inside with a fast reclaim, meaning the raid was fuel, not direction. The close relative to the swept level is the entire verdict, as the sweep guide details.
Trading it without folklore
The honest uses: treat a Q2 sweep-and-reclaim as context favouring the opposite direction into Q3, pending structure confirmation; refuse to chase Q2 breakouts before the acceptance test resolves; and mark swept levels, they become the day's reference points. The dishonest use is fading every Q2 push mechanically: some raids are simply breakouts, and the close, not the clock, tells you which.
FAQ
Does the Q2 raid happen every day?
No. It is a recurring habit, common enough to plan around, absent often enough that its presence or absence is itself information about the day.
Which side gets raided?
Statistically nothing reliable: the raid tends toward whichever side holds the more obvious liquidity, often the cleaner, more-tested extreme of the overnight range.
How do I avoid being the raid's victim?
Keep stops off the obvious extremes or size for the sweep, and never chase a Q2 break before closes confirm acceptance beyond the level.
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