Q1: the accumulation shift
From the 18:00 New York reopen through midnight, participation is thin and the market's main output is a range: the overnight balance both later sessions will reference. The productive work here is measurement, not trading: mark the high and low; they are tomorrow's first liquidity pools.
Q2: the manipulation window
Midnight to 06:00 New York covers the London approach and open, and this quarter's signature habit is the raid: a push through one side of the Q1 range that fills orders and springs stops before the truer move. Not every night, but often enough that a Q2 sweep of the Q1 extreme is worth treating as information rather than noise.
Q3: the expansion window
06:00 to noon New York owns the deepest liquidity and nearly all tier-one data. When Q2 raided one way, Q3 frequently delivers the day's genuine directional business the other way. This is where the day's range gets built and where trend-following logic has its best hours.
Q4: completion
Afternoon New York digests: continuation slows, retracement and position-squaring dominate, and fresh breakouts start with a participation handicap. The cycle resets at 18:00.
Using it honestly
The quarters generate context questions: did Q2 sweep the range? which side? is Q3 confirming with structure? Answers come from price, per the killzone and sweep playbooks. Time windows never justify entries alone; they tell you when the usual suspects tend to act. You can follow the same levels on the XAU/USD live chart as they form.
FAQ
Why anchor the quarters to New York time?
Because gold's daily cycle, reopen, London approach, US data, settlement, is organised around the New York trading day, and the 18:00 reset matches the market's own rhythm.
Does every day follow the four-quarter script?
No. It is a recurring tendency, strongest on ordinary data-bearing weekdays, and readily overridden by surprises, holidays and regime shifts.
Which quarter should I trade?
Most traders get the best risk-reward engaging Q3 with Q2's raid as context. Q1 is for marking levels; Q4 for managing, not initiating.
ⓘ See these ideas on real price: open the free XAUUSD live chart.