Q1: the accumulation shift
From the 18:00 New York reopen through midnight, participation is thin and the market's main output is a range: the overnight balance both later sessions will reference. The productive work here is measurement, not trading: mark the high and low; they are tomorrow's first liquidity pools.
Q2: the manipulation window
Midnight to 06:00 New York covers the London approach and open, and this quarter's signature habit is the raid: a push through one side of the Q1 range that fills orders and springs stops before the truer move. Not every night, but often enough that a Q2 sweep of the Q1 extreme is worth treating as information rather than noise.
Q3: the expansion window
06:00 to noon New York owns the deepest liquidity and nearly all tier-one data. When Q2 raided one way, Q3 frequently delivers the day's genuine directional business the other way. This is where the day's range gets built and where trend-following logic has its best hours.
Q4: completion
Afternoon New York digests: continuation slows, retracement and position-squaring dominate, and fresh breakouts start with a participation handicap. The cycle resets at 18:00.
FAQ
Why anchor the quarters to New York time?
Because gold's daily cycle, reopen, London approach, US data, settlement, is organised around the New York trading day, and the 18:00 reset matches the market's own rhythm.
Does every day follow the four-quarter script?
No. It is a recurring tendency, strongest on ordinary data-bearing weekdays, and readily overridden by surprises, holidays and regime shifts.
Which quarter should I trade?
Most traders get the best risk-reward engaging Q3 with Q2's raid as context. Q1 is for marking levels; Q4 for managing, not initiating.
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